9/7/2018 GBPUSD trade

This trade is by the book.

(1) Price breaks above Ichimoku Kumo H4.

GU_9-7-2018_H4

(2) Price retraces to ARIMA L90.

GU_9-7-2018_H1_ARIMA
(3) Price reaches ATR * 1.

GU_9-7-2018_H1_ARIMA_tradereceipt

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FX Analysis (9/7/18-13/7/18) H4 charts

Summary
========

Commodities class : Gold : Long
Index class : Nasdaq, S&P500  : Long
Bond class : US 10yr note : Long
FX class xxx/USD : Long
Crypto class BTC/USD : Short

Charts
======

Gold XAUUSD is uptrend now. Just broke above Kumo.

XU_9-7-2018_H4

EURUSD (and other xxxUSD) is now uptrend.

EU_9-7-2018_H4

Nasdaq and other US indices are uptrend now

NQ_9-7-2018_H4

BTC/USD is not uptrend yet. Still downtrend.

BTC_9-7-2018_H4

10 years US treasury note (bond) is uptrend.

10yrNte_9-7-2018_H4

VAR model shows uptrend for EURUSD earlier.  VSA supports a strong uptrend with red VSA bar above +3000 level.

EU_9-7-2018_M15_VAR

 

 

FCPO Residual Spread Analysis (2/7/18-6/7/18)

Using heteroskedasticity to trade FCPO is my idea, I think no one has thought of that in Malaysia.

When CADF (co-integrated Augmented Dickey Fuller Test) shows a good mean revert property, its a good timing to do a counter trend (or range) trading.

Residual2

From our residual plot, SepOct 18 seems to have a good opportunity for a short (Short Sept, Long Oct). Thus we may short the next day. The results seems to be good, with +57 ticks profit for Outright Sept contract short , and +16 ticks for SepOct Spread contracts short.

Residual3

Next, we analyse the upcoming opportunity for next week, and residual plot will give hints of opportunity.

RegressionResidual_NovDec

RegressionResidual_JanFeb

RegressionResidual_DecJan

It seems that JanFeb is a good short, and DecJan is a good long. Combine will form a long Butterfly Dec-Jan-Feb.

NovDec is a also a good long.

However, the CADF values are crucial. Ensures its more negative than -3.000 will have higher odds of mean reversion. Of this, most spread pairs are OK, except OctNov. Thus dont do OctNov spread next week.

CADF_OctNov

 

Weekly FX Analysis (2/7/18-6/7/18)

This week is impacted by Macro news of Trade War between US and China. This has some negative impact on USD. Long EURUSD seems to be the macro bias.

EU_7-7-02018_15min_Weekly

A good opening to long will be after some retracement during the start of the week, at around 1.1600 level (ARIMA L90, VSA White)

After the Long trade, TP points are ARIMA U90 levels. Total of 5 TP points for the week.

EU_7-7-02018_15min_Weekly2

Thus this week’s EU trade is characterised by a U-turn up. and ARIMA is a good tool to capture this type of opportunity, with VAR directional indicator as a guide on directional timing.