26/8/13 NQ Analysis

(1) US equity market – BULLISH
===================
Mkt is slightly uptrend, still going up within the mild uptrend channel.

Immediate target is 1700. Price may retrace to 1650 at channel support, before going up again to 1700.

Fundamentally, S&P500 is correlated with Bonds (2yr, 5yr treasury notes, and 30yr Bond), Gold, and VIX.

Bonds go up –> S&P500 goes up (Bond and equity market is now positively correlated 0.50+)
VIX goes down –>S&P500 goes up (-0.8)
Gold goes down –> S&P500 goes up (-0.6)
Gold down –> DOllar Index up –> S&P500 Up
Dollar Index Up –> EURUSD down –> S&P500 up

Thus we want to see Gold down, VIX down, Bond up, to be consistent view that Equity mkt is going up. If EURUSD pairs does down and Dollar index up, it will help to confirm S&P500 will go up. Dollar now has positive correlation with S&P500. Relationship changes all the time, and its important to keep track on daily basis.

Daily Dow Jones Transportation Average ($DJT)
===============================================
Above 100 MA. Clearly uptrend.

DJT_DAILY_26-8-13

Daily chart ($SPX)
===========
S&P500 Daily chart is moderately bullish.

NQ_DAILY_26-8-13

DAILY CHART (NASDAQ 100)
=====================

Daily chart shows a strong uptrend channel. However, we are at the peak of the channel. Nonetheless, the long signal appears again for the 4th time only this year, signalling a continuation of uptrend. We may look to long NQ.

NQ_DAILY_26-8-13A

60min chart
=============
Supports daily chart’s view of bullish NQ. We may look to long NQ. Its a bit far away from Ichi Moku support. We wait for retracement towards SD-3 area to long.

NQ_60MIN_26-8-13

15min chart
============
LINE 6 is 3090, a good retracement area to long.

NQ_15MIN_26-8-13

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