Apr 16 US Stock & Bond market analysis

US 30years Treasury Note

Downtrend channel. Going UP.
US30_31-3-16_Day.jpg

10yr US Treasury Note

Already break downtrend channel. Going UP strong.

US10_31-3-16_Day.jpg

US 5years Treasury Notes
Already break downtrend channel. Going UP strong.
US5_31-3-16_Day.jpg

US 2yr Treasury Note
Broke downtrend channel. Going up fast. Already established Uptrend channel now.

US2_31-3-16_Day.jpg

UK 10yr Gilt 
UK10_31-3-16_Day.jpg

Dow Jones Index Daily Chart

Still uptrend channel. But has Bat Short signal by Harmonic day pattern. A warning sign of coming downtrend reversal.YM_31-3-16_Day.jpg

S&P500 Index Day Chart
Similar to Dow Jones, still in uptrend channel, but has Shark Harmonic Short signal at day chart.

ES_31-3-16_Day.jpg

Nasdaq 100 Index Day Chart
Similar to S&P500 and Dow Jones, price still in uptrend channel, but has Cypher Harmonic short pattern.

NQ_31-3-16_Day.jpg

FTSE (UK stock index) Day chart
Already broke uptrend channel. Now in downtrend channel. A warning sign for US stock indices. It showed Shark Harmonic short signal earlier and price went down trend high of 6246.

FTSE100_31-3-16_Day.jpg

Nikkei 225 Index Day Chart
Falling off uptrend channel. Sign of reversal downtrend.

Nikkei_31-3-16_Day.jpg

HK Hang Seng Index Day chart

Still on uptrend channel. But almost fell off earlier and now back in the channel.

HangSeng_31-3-16_Day.jpg

Europe Stoxx 50 Index
Already in downtrend channel.

Stoxx50_31-3-16_Day.jpg

Singaore STI Index
Still in uptrend channel

SG30_31-3-16_Day.jpg

WTI Crude Day Chart

Already broke uptrend channel. Now may be start of downtrend.

WTI_31-3-16_Day

Gold Day Chart

Broke uptrend channel, coming down. But may reverse up again.
Gold_31-3-16_Day.jpg

 

Summary

Bonds : Broke downtrend channels, going UP
Stock Indices : Still Up –> Coming down
Oil : Broke uptrend, coming down.
Gold : Broke uptrend, coming down.

Confirmation signals
We plan to short S&P500 index. We wait for :
(1) Dow Jones & Nasdaq 100 break uptrend channel, and come down.
(2) Bond cont to go up in uptrend channel.
(3) Oil down, Gold Up.

Means we want to see clear signs of Risk Off play as we enter April 2016.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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