7/4/16 Bond & Equity mkts analysis (updated)

On 31/3/2016, my blog post analysed relationship between Bond, Equity markets, Gold, Oil, and make a deduction that global equity markets MAY come down.

This is happening now.

This post will be update of the previous blog.

30years US Treasury Note

US30_7-4-16_Daily
US 30yr bond already broke downtrend channel that started since 11/2/2016. On 15/3/2016, the bond price already started going up, and now is confirmed broke down channel. Trend may reverse to uptrend from now on.

10years US Treasury Note

US10_7-4-16_Daily.jpg
US 10yr bond already broke downtrend channel that started since 11/2/2016. On 15/3/2016, the bond price already started going up, and now is confirmed broke down channel. Trend may reverse to uptrend from now on.

5years US Treasury Note

US5_7-4-16_Daily
US 5yr bond already broke downtrend channel that started since 11/2/2016. On 15/3/2016, the bond price already started going up, and now is confirmed broke down channel. Trend may reverse to uptrend from now on.

2years US Treasury Note

US2_7-4-16_Daily.jpg
US 2yr bond already broke downtrend channel that started since 11/2/2016. On 15/3/2016, the bond price already started going up, and now is confirmed broke down channel. Trend may reverse to uptrend from now on.

10years UK Treasury Note

UK10_7-4-16_Daily.jpg
UK 10yr bond already broke downtrend channel that started since 11/2/2016. On 15/3/2016, the bond price already started going up, and now is confirmed broke down channel. Trend may reverse to uptrend from now on.

S&P500 Daily Chart

ES_7-4-16_Daily.jpg
US Equity Index S&P500 still holding uptrend channel that started since 11/2/2016. On 15/3/2016, the bond price already started going up, and now is confirmed broke down channel. Trend of Bonds may reverse to uptrend from now on. But US Equity still intact. There is a chance of going down soon.

Dow Jones Daily Chart

YM_7-4-16_Daily.jpg
US Equity Index Dow Jones 30 still holding uptrend channel that started since 11/2/2016. But there is a slight crack to the down side. On 15/3/2016, the bond price already started going up, and now is confirmed broke down channel. Trend of Bonds may reverse to uptrend from now on. But US Equity still intact. There is a chance of going down soon.

Nasdaq Daily Chart

NQ_7-4-16_Daily.jpg
US Equity Index Nasdaq100 still holding uptrend channel that started since 11/2/2016. On 15/3/2016, the bond price already started going up, and now is confirmed broke down channel. Trend of Bonds may reverse to uptrend from now on. But US Equity still intact. There is a chance of going down soon.

UK Equity FTSE Daily Chart

FTSE_7-4-16_Daily.jpg
UK Equity Index FTSE100 still holding uptrend channel that started since 11/2/2016. There is a current break of uptrend channel. However the index price still looks bullish. On 15/3/2016, the bond price already started going up, and now is confirmed broke down channel. Trend of Bonds may reverse to uptrend from now on. But UK Equity Mkt still look intact. There is a chance of going down soon.

Euro Stoxx50 Index Day chart

EuroStoxx50_7-4-16_Daily.jpg

Euro Stoxx 50 holding uptrend channel that started since 11/2/2016. At 15/3/2016, there is a current break of uptrend channel, and European Index has turn bearish. On 15/3/2016, the US bond price already started going up, and now is confirmed broke down channel. Trend of Bonds may reverse to uptrend from now on.  EU Stoxx50 Index reversed to downtrend at the same time.

Japan Nikkei 225 Index Day chart

JP_7-4-16_Daily.jpg

Japan Equity Index Nikkei 225 holding uptrend channel that started since 11/2/2016. At 15/3/2016, there is a current break of uptrend channel, and Nikkei has turn bearish. On 15/3/2016, the US bond price already started going up, and now is confirmed broke down channel. Trend of Bonds may reverse to uptrend from now on. Japan Equity market reversed to downtrend at the same time.

Hong Kong Equity Index – Hang Seng Index Day chart

HSI_7-4-16_Daily.jpg

Hang Seng Index holding uptrend channel that started since 11/2/2016. At 24/3/2016, there is a current break of uptrend channel, and Nikkei has turn bearish. On 15/3/2016, the US bond price already started going up, and now is confirmed broke down channel. Trend of Bonds may reverse to uptrend from now on. HK Equity market may reverse down from now onwards.

Singapore – STI Index Day chart

STI_7-4-16_Daily.jpg

STI Index holding uptrend channel that started since 11/2/2016. At 15/3/2016, there is a current break of uptrend channel, and STI has turn bearish. On 15/3/2016, the US bond price already started going up, and now is confirmed broke down channel. Trend of Bonds may reverse to uptrend from now on. Sg Equity market may reverse down from now onwards.

Copper Futures Day chart

Copper_7-4-16_Daily.jpg

Copper holding uptrend channel that started since 11/2/2016. At 15/3/2016, there is a current break of uptrend channel, and Copper has turn bearish. On 15/3/2016, the US bond price already started going up, and now is confirmed broke down channel. Trend of Bonds may reverse to uptrend from now on. Copper market may reverse down from now onwards.

Gold Futures Day chart

Gold_7-4-16_Daily.jpg

Gold holding uptrend channel that started since 11/2/2016. At 15/3/2016, there is a current break of uptrend channel, and Gold has turn bearish. On 15/3/2016, the US bond price already started going up, and now is confirmed broke down channel. Trend of Bonds may reverse to uptrend from now on. Gold market may reverse down from now onwards. Gold has inverse relationship with USD. Thus if Gold comes down, USD will go up.

Silver Futures Day chart

Silver_7-4-16_Daily.jpg

Silver holding uptrend channel that started since 11/2/2016. At 17/3/2016, there is a current break of uptrend channel, and Gold has turn bearish. On 15/3/2016, the US bond price already started going up, and now is confirmed broke down channel. Trend of Bonds may reverse to uptrend from now on. Silver market may reverse down from now onwards. Gold has inverse relationship with USD. Thus if Silver comes down, USD may go up.

Crude WTI Futures Day chart

Crude_WTI_7-4-16_Daily.jpg

Crude holding uptrend channel that started since 11/2/2016. At 17/3/2016, there is a current break of uptrend channel, and Gold has turn bearish. On 15/3/2016, the US bond price already started going up, and now is confirmed broke down channel. Trend of Bonds may reverse to uptrend from now on. Crude market may reverse down from now onwards. Crude has +ve correlation with US Equity Market. Thus Crude may bring US Equity indices down.

Implications

Bond : UP
Equity : DOWN
Oil : DOWN
Metal : DOWN

 

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